HSBC Holdings plc

Banking NII of $44.1bn in FY2025 provides meaningful forward visibility, with management guiding 'at least $45bn' for 2026. Deposit stickiness and long-standing corporate relationships underpin stability, though credit cycle and interest rate sensitivity limit predictability through downturns.

Revenue is distributed across retail and wealth management (42.3%), commercial banking (31.8%), and investment, financing, and markets (25.9%) as of FY2025, with no single segment exceeding 50%. All three are banking activities correlated to the same macroeconomic and credit cycle, limiting the diversification benefit.

Over 90% of HSBC's profits originate from Asia, with Hong Kong alone contributing approximately 28% of group pre-tax profit in FY2025 and approximately 36% in FY2024 ($11.69bn of $32.3bn). Management is strategically redeploying capital into Hong Kong and Asia, deepening rather than reducing this structural concentration.

HSBC's wealth management and digital trade finance platforms — including TradePay live in 21 countries — offer pockets of operating leverage. Traditional lending and corporate banking require proportional balance sheet and headcount growth, constraining group-level scalability; the simplification program targets 1% cost growth against planned revenue expansion through 2028.

Banking NII from a large, stable deposit franchise is structurally sticky, and wealth fee income — which rose 24% in FY2025 — adds recurring, advisory-linked revenue. Markets and transactional banking introduce meaningful cycle sensitivity; the revenue base is higher quality than a pure wholesale bank but below that of a subscription-fee or asset-management model.