Micron Technology, Inc.

Commodity DRAM and NAND revenues swing with spot and contract pricing, evidenced by FY2023 revenue falling 49.5% to $15.5B from FY2022's $30.8B peak. Forward visibility has improved as Micron fully contracted its calendar 2026 HBM supply under multi-year fixed-price agreements, but HBM remains a minority of total revenue.

Revenue is concentrated in two closely related memory products: DRAM accounted for roughly 76% of Q3 FY2025 revenue and NAND for approximately 20%. Both face the same memory cycle drivers, so the product split provides limited cross-hedging when end demand swings.

Micron sells through global OEM customers across the U.S., Taiwan, Korea, and broader Asia, with revenue rebalancing away from China after Beijing's May 2023 ban on Micron products in critical infrastructure (China plus Hong Kong had been about 25% of combined FY2022 revenue). No single country now dominates, but end demand concentrates in AI data center regions.

Memory manufacturing is capital-intensive, with fiscal 2026 capex raised to over $25B on a revenue base at peak rates near $50B annualized. Operating leverage is significant at cycle peaks (gross margin reached 75% in Q2 FY2026) but reverses to losses at troughs (FY2023 net loss of $5.83B), so leverage is cycle-dependent rather than structural.

Most revenue remains transactional memory sales at prevailing cycle prices. Quality has improved within HBM through multi-year fixed-price agreements covering 100% of calendar 2026 supply, but HBM was a roughly $6B annualized run-rate exiting Q3 FY2025 within a much larger mixed book of commodity DRAM and NAND.